A bold Ukrainian military offensive into Russia’s Kursk region has seen Kyiv’s forces capture numerous villages, take hundreds of prisoners, and force the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians, marking the largest attack on Russian territory since World War II. Despite over a week of intense fighting, Russian troops continue to struggle to repel the invaders.
Russia’s military was caught off guard for several reasons:
- A Stretched Border with Limited Defenses: Russia’s regions of Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod share a 1,160-kilometer (720-mile) border with Ukraine, including a 245-kilometer (152-mile) section in the Kursk region. Before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this frontier had only symbolic protection. Although reinforced with checkpoints and some fortifications since then, building strong defenses across the entire border has been a formidable challenge. Meanwhile, Russia’s most capable units are engaged in eastern Ukraine, leaving the border regions with insufficient land forces.
- Surprise and Secrecy: Unlike last year’s counteroffensive, where Kyiv openly declared its goals, this incursion into Kursk was kept secret until just a day before it began. This secrecy allowed Ukrainian troops to surprise the Russian military, which was largely focused on eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces, made up of battle-hardened mechanized units, quickly overwhelmed the lightly armed Russian border guards and inexperienced conscripts. They drove deep into the region with minimal resistance, causing chaos and panic.
- Slow Russian Response: The Russian military initially relied on air power to counter the attack, but Ukrainian forces managed to shoot down or damage some helicopters. Reinforcements eventually arrived, slowing Ukraine’s advances but not completely stopping them. Analysts noted that the Russian forces lacked combat experience and had trouble coordinating their efforts, leading to tactical mistakes, such as parking military convoys carelessly near the fighting area, which were then targeted by Ukrainian rockets.
- Strategic Risks for Ukraine: It remains unclear whether Ukraine intends to maintain a foothold in the Kursk region or withdraw back to its territory. Holding ground in Kursk poses risks, as extended supply lines would be vulnerable to Russian strikes. Military experts warn that trying to consolidate and hold this territory could stretch Ukrainian forces and expose them to counterattacks, potentially turning a strategic success into a liability. However, the incursion has already bolstered Ukrainian morale and demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to take the fight into Russia.
This operation represents a significant shift in the conflict, challenging the status quo and altering narratives about Ukraine’s prospects in the war.
