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Insights on Hawaii’s State Primaries: AP Decision Notes

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Voting in Hawaii’s state primaries comes to an end on Saturday, with candidates vying for nominations for Congress and the Legislature. Democrats are hoping for crucial victories in the primaries to secure wins in November and gain control of both chambers in the next presidential term. The primary focus is on the Senate race, where Democrat Mazie Hirono seeks re-election for a third term, expected to easily win against Republican nominees Ron Curtis and Clyde Lewman.

Hirono holds a significant campaign fund, while the Republican nominee will emerge from a six-way primary with candidates like Adriel Lam and Bob McDermott. Democratic Rep. Ed Case faces a nominal challenge in the 1st Congressional District primary. In the 2nd District, incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican Steve Bond run unopposed. House Speaker Scott Saiki faces a challenge in the Democratic primary from Kim Coco Iwamoto.

The primaries will determine candidates for half of Hawaii’s state Senate seats and all 51 state House seats this year. All polls close at 7 p.m. local time on Saturday. The Associated Press will report results, and any registered voter in Hawaii can participate in any party’s primary. The state has four major counties, with voter turnout predominantly by mail. Recounts are automatic in close races.

In 2022, there were 861,358 registered voters in Hawaii, with a 31% turnout in the Democratic primary and 8% in the Republican primary. As of Tuesday, over 159,000 mail ballots were cast out of approximately 816,000 mailed out. Vote-counting typically takes several hours, as seen in past primaries. The November general election is 87 days away.

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