15 million votes cast: Harris holds 2-1 lead among early voters, but Trump voters mostly show up on election day

Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a significant lead over Donald Trump in early voting, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll. Among those who have already cast their ballots, Harris leads Trump by a large margin, 63% to 34%.

Trump Gains Ground Among Election Day Voters

Despite Harris’ early lead, Trump shows stronger support among those planning to vote on Election Day, with a 52%-35% advantage. Early voting, which has already started in some states, shows about one in seven voters has already cast their ballot. These early voters have listed abortion rights and women’s rights as their second most important issue, after the economy.

A Close Overall Race with Harris Slightly Ahead

Overall, the poll indicates a tight race, with Harris holding a slight 45% to 44% lead over Trump. The survey, conducted between October 14 and 18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, making the contest essentially a toss-up.

Democrats Banking Early Votes, Boosting Down-Ballot Candidates

Early voting is giving Democrats an edge, allowing Harris to secure early gains while giving her campaign time to focus on persuading Election Day voters. The early turnout is also benefiting Democratic congressional candidates, with early voters supporting Democrats by 63% to 33%. This advantage could prove crucial as the election progresses.

Republicans Push for Early Voting After 2020 Setbacks

In contrast to 2020, when Republicans largely avoided early voting due to Trump’s claims of fraud, the GOP is now encouraging its supporters to vote early. This shift comes as both parties prepare for what could be a closely fought election, with early votes potentially shaping the final outcome.