According to a new set of polls conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer, Donald J. Trump currently holds a lead over President Biden in five crucial battleground states. These polls reveal a growing desire for change and discontent over economic issues and the conflict in Gaza among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, which poses a threat to the Democratic coalition.
In head-to-head matchups among registered voters, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in five out of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden only leads in one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race becomes tighter among likely voters, with Mr. Trump still leading in five states, but Mr. Biden gaining ground in Michigan and trailing closely in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden secured victories in all six states in the 2020 election, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would be sufficient for his re-election if he maintains his support elsewhere.
Similar trends were observed in hypothetical matchups that included minor-party candidates and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. These findings largely remain consistent with previous Times/Siena polls conducted in battleground states since November.
Despite various developments such as the rise in the stock market, Mr. Trump’s ongoing criminal trial, and increased campaign spending by the Biden camp, there’s little indication that these factors have significantly impacted voter sentiments. Concerns regarding the cost of living, immigration, the Gaza conflict, and a desire for change persist, adversely affecting President Biden’s approval ratings.
The polls underscore widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s current state and doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to enact substantial improvements. While many voters desire a return to normalcy, particularly in battleground states, there’s a prevalent sentiment that the political and economic systems require significant changes or even complete overhaul.
Only a small fraction of Mr. Biden’s supporters believe he would bring about major changes in his second term. Meanwhile, even among those who dislike Mr. Trump, there’s acknowledgment that he would disrupt the unsatisfactory status quo.
This perception has led to a decline in support for Mr. Biden among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, who traditionally form the backbone of the Democratic base. These groups express a desire for fundamental changes in American society and hold doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver on promises of reform.
Surprisingly, Mr. Trump garners substantial support among these demographics, with over 20 percent of Black voters indicating their preference for him—a level of support unseen for any Republican candidate since the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
